Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Shifts West

Cyclone Vance weakened to a tropical storm during the afternoon of Sunday, October 25, 2026. Vance was no longer a hurricane, and its maximum sustained winds were 110 kilometers per hour. The National Meteorological Service’s 15:00 report placed Vance’s center 390 kilometers south-southwest of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, and 455 kilometers south of Manzanillo, Colima. Vance was moving north-northwest at 11 kilometers per hour.

The projected track could bring Vance to an approximate minimum distance of 189 kilometers from Cabo Corrientes between the afternoon of Wednesday, October 28, and early Thursday, October 29. The threat to southwest Mexico is decreasing as the forecast track shifts westward away from the coast, although further westward adjustments are likely if guidance trends continue. Vance is expected to continue moving northwest to west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed, then turn back to the north by the middle of the week. A closed upper-level low moving across the southwestern United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States are helping steer the storm.

Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will affect portions of western Mexico during much of this week. Vance-associated rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across western portions of Michoacán, Jalisco and Durango, as well as across Colima, Nayarit and Sinaloa; the risk is especially relevant in areas along steep terrain. For the next 24 hours, Conagua forecast isolated very heavy rainfall of 50 to 75 millimeters in western and southern Jalisco. Heavy rains could cause waterlogging, flooding, landslides and rising river and stream levels, mainly in vulnerable areas.

Waves two to three meters high were expected along the coasts of Jalisco and Colima. Along the coasts of Michoacán and Guerrero, waves could reach four to five meters, while sustained winds of 20 to 30 kilometers per hour were forecast there. The National Hurricane Center forecast Vance at 15.3°N, 105.3°W with maximum winds of 50 knots at 1200Z on October 26. Forecast positions and maximum winds were 15.7°N, 106.0°W and 45 knots at 0000Z on October 27; 16.5°N, 106.8°W and 40 knots at 1200Z that day; and 17.4°N, 107.3°W with 40-knot winds at 0000Z on October 28.

The forecast then placed Vance at 18.5°N, 107.6°W with 40-knot winds at 1200Z on October 28, 20.0°N, 107.7°W with 40-knot winds at 0000Z on October 29, and 22.0°N, 107.8°W with 35-knot winds and a post-tropical status at 0000Z on October 30. At 0000Z on October 31, it was forecast to be a post-tropical or remnant low with 30-knot winds. Vance’s structure continues to degrade as strong vertical wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air affect the system. Most guidance shows Vance weakening faster than the current forecast, and the storm could become a remnant low sooner than forecast.

People and organizations in southwest Mexico should continue monitoring Vance’s progress, while authorities recommended that people in coastal areas heed official notices, especially given the forecast of rain and high waves.