Puerto Vallarta Vance Wind Risk Set At 5%

Hurricane Vance had maximum sustained winds near 95 knots at 0300 UTC on Saturday, October 24, 2026. At that time, its center was near latitude 12.0 north and longitude 102.6 west. The wind-speed bulletin covers locations and time periods during the next five days. It gives probabilities, in percent, for sustained one-minute-average winds of at least 34 knots, 50 knots and 64 knots. For P Vallarta, the five-day cumulative probability of winds reaching at least 34 knots was 5 percent.

The bulletin uses two measures for location probabilities: onset probability and cumulative probability. An X indicates a probability of less than 1 percent. The bulletin shows probabilities for 34-knot and 50-knot winds when the five-day cumulative probability reaches at least 3 percent, and it shows probabilities for all three wind thresholds when the five-day cumulative probability for 64-knot winds is at least 1 percent.

Islas Marias had a 6 percent cumulative probability of at least 34-knot winds, while San Blas had 7 percent. Barra Navidad had probabilities of 27 percent for at least 34-knot winds, 7 percent for at least 50 knots and 2 percent for at least 64 knots. Manzanillo had a 59 percent cumulative probability of at least 34-knot winds, 22 percent for at least 50 knots and 9 percent for at least 64 knots. The figures for L Cardenas were 43 percent, 7 percent and 2 percent at those same thresholds.

Zihuatanejo had a 26 percent probability of at least 34-knot winds and 3 percent for at least 50 knots. The bulletin also lists a 41 percent cumulative probability of at least 34-knot winds at 15N 105W, with 9 percent for at least 50 knots and 4 percent for at least 64 knots. At 15N 100W, the probability of at least 34-knot winds was 4 percent. Acapulco had a 4 percent probability of at least 34-knot winds.