Tropical Storm Vance reaches 70 mph

Tropical Storm Vance had maximum sustained winds near 70 miles per hour (110 kilometers per hour) in a bulletin issued at 0300 UTC on Friday, October 23, 2026.

At that time, its center was near 10.5° north latitude and 101.9° west longitude.

For Puerto Vallarta, the cumulative probability of sustained winds of at least 34 knots by 00Z Wednesday was 4 percent.

The same threshold was 7 percent at San Blas, 7 percent at Islas Marias, 23 percent at Barra Navidad, 33 percent at L Cardenas, and 47 percent at Manzanillo.

The probabilities were higher at a reference point near 15° north and 105° west: 58 percent for winds of at least 34 knots, 21 percent for at least 50 knots, and 10 percent for at least 64 knots by 00Z Wednesday.

At another reference point, 15° north and 100° west, the cumulative probability of at least 34-knot winds was 6 percent.

Farther south, the cumulative probability of at least 34-knot winds was 20 percent at Zihuatanejo and 5 percent at Acapulco by 00Z Wednesday.

Zihuatanejo had a 3 percent probability of at least 50-knot winds.

At Manzanillo, the cumulative probability was 16 percent for winds of at least 50 knots and 6 percent for at least 64 knots.

At L Cardenas, the figures were 5 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

Barra Navidad had a 5 percent probability of at least 50-knot winds and 1 percent for at least 64-knot winds.

These figures are percentages for locations and time periods during the next five days.

The wind-speed probabilities cover sustained one-minute-average winds of at least 34, 50, and 64 knots, and are provided as onset and cumulative probabilities.

The table displays probabilities for 34-knot and 50-knot winds when the five-day cumulative probability reaches at least 3 percent; probabilities for all three thresholds are shown when the five-day cumulative probability for 64-knot winds reaches at least 1 percent.

An “X” indicates a probability below 1 percent.

For a visitor in Puerto Vallarta, the local figure to watch in this bulletin is the 4 percent cumulative probability for winds of at least 34 knots by 00Z Wednesday.