Hurricane Trudy reaches Category 2 near Jalisco

Hurricane Trudy was a Category 2 system at 0300 UTC on Friday, October 16, with its center near 14.3N, 102.1W and maximum winds of 90 knots, or 105 mph. Its estimated minimum central pressure was 971 millibars, and it was intensifying rapidly.

Protection Civil Jalisco placed the center about 600 kilometers south-southeast of Cihuatlán, on Jalisco’s southern coast. Trudy was moving north-northwest at 6 knots, while the forecast ridge was expected to steer it northwestward to north-northwestward roughly parallel to the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico.

Trudy was expected to approach Mexico’s southwestern and west-central coasts during the weekend. Large swells were expected to begin affecting portions of southwestern Mexico on Friday and continue through the weekend, with potentially life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

For Puerto Vallarta and the Jalisco coast, people were advised to avoid the sea during the weekend, stay away from streams and rivers, and follow Civil Protection instructions. Authorities also urged the public to follow National Meteorological Service notices and Civil Protection instructions.

Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy was expected to affect the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. Forecast rainfall in Colima and Jalisco was approximately 100 to 200 millimeters, while another forecast expected accumulated precipitation in Colima, Jalisco, and Michoacán to exceed 250 millimeters from Thursday through Sunday.

The rainfall could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. Flooding and mudslides were especially possible in areas along steep terrain, and authorities warned that rainfall could cause overflows, raise water levels in rivers and streams, and flood low-lying areas.

A tropical-storm wind warning remained in effect from Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, to Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, while the area that could experience hurricane-force winds extended from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco. Jalisco’s coast was also part of the hurricane watch area.

The forecast called for Trudy to be a major hurricane as it approached the southwestern and west-central Mexican coast. After 36 to 48 hours, increasing southwesterly wind shear, possible eyewall replacement cycles, and land interaction were expected to disrupt its circulation; beyond 72 hours, strong wind shear was expected to cause continued weakening.

For a weekend visit, avoid the sea and waterways, then check Civil Protection and SMN bulletins before traveling along the Jalisco coast.