Trudy forecast near Mexico as major hurricane

Trudy was forecast to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane during the weekend.

At 1200 UTC on October 17, the forecast placed the storm at 16.4°N, 103.2°W with maximum winds of 115 kt (130 mph).

The storm’s projected path brought it very close to the coast between southwestern and west-central Mexico during the weekend, with a forecast turn west-northwestward away from the coast early the following week.

Between 72 and 96 hours, Trudy was forecast to move northwestward roughly parallel to the coast from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

Forecast confidence was limited: considerable uncertainty remained in the track forecast, particularly during days 4 and 5.

Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico were advised to closely monitor Trudy’s progress.

For the Bay of Banderas area, the reported probability of sustained winds of at least 34 knots at P Vallarta was 17% by 00Z Tuesday.

The corresponding probability was 72% at Manzanillo, 51% at Barra Navidad, 18% at San Blas and 7% at Mazatlan.

At Manzanillo, the probability of sustained winds of at least 50 knots was 37%, while the probability of at least 64 knots was 19%.

Large swells were forecast to begin affecting portions of southwestern Mexico late in the week and continue through the weekend.

The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions, while Trudy’s rainfall could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides across Colima and Jalisco by the weekend.

Heavy rain can run off quickly in mountain ranges and hillsides, favoring landslides and overflows.

At 0300 UTC on October 15, it was forecast at 12.4°N, 100.8°W with maximum winds of 60 kt (70 mph).

Satellite imagery indicated that Trudy had become better organized, with an expanding central dense overcast and a fragmented convective band wrapping around the northern portion of its circulation.

Recent microwave imagery also showed improving inner-core organization.

The forecast called for rapid intensification during the next 24 hours, supported by low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and abundant deep moisture.

Increasing southwesterly wind shear and drier mid-level air were expected to induce weakening beyond 60 hours.