Tropical Storm Simón nears Jalisco coast

Tropical Storm “Simón” is continuing to strengthen in the Pacific, and authorities have issued a yellow alert for the municipality of Puerto Vallarta. The forecast track is expected to bring the storm closer to Jalisco territory, while its impact point remains undefined.

At 21:00 on Wednesday, October 7, Simón was 455 kilometers from the coast of Jalisco and 455 kilometers from Cihuatlán. The system was moving west-northwest at 11 kilometers per hour, with sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour. Another report put its movement at 13 kilometers per hour and its gusts at up to 85 kilometers per hour, so those figures differ.

Simón was forecast to skirt the Mexican coast while gradually strengthening Thursday and to begin rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Mexican Pacific. By noon on October 8, it was forecast to be off Michoacán and close to hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour and gusts of 150 kilometers per hour. By midnight, its winds were forecast to reach 100 kilometers per hour, and it was expected to be 230 kilometers south-southwest of Guerrero.

Numerical models projected Category 1 hurricane strength during the early hours of Friday, October 9, followed by Category 2 strength off Colima on Saturday, October 10. Toward the weekend, Simón was forecast to quickly strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane off the coast of Jalisco, with gusts of up to 220 kilometers per hour, and to threaten Nayarit and Sinaloa with a high-severity impact Sunday and Monday.

For Costa Norte, where Puerto Vallarta is located, Protección Civil expected moderate to occasionally heavy rain from Thursday through Sunday, with 60 to 100 millimeters forecast across Costa Sur, Costa Norte, Sierra de Amula, and Sur. Gusts were forecast at 40 to 70 kilometers per hour, possibly higher along the coasts and in mountainous areas, while waves could reach 3 to 5 meters.

The five-day forecast gave P Vallarta a 58 percent cumulative probability of sustained winds of at least 34 knots, 26 percent for at least 50 knots, and 7 percent for at least 64 knots by the 120-hour forecast. These are probabilities, not a prediction that each threshold will occur.

Heavy rain is falling over Puerto Vallarta tonight. Protección Civil recommends avoiding flooded areas and not crossing streams during intense rain. It also asks people not to remain under trees or in open spaces during a storm, to suspend recreational activities if waves rise, and to avoid rocky beaches. The alert notice recommends limiting travel, protecting important documents and objects, removing vehicles from low-lying areas, and preparing for possible service outages. People are advised to stay informed through Jalisco Alerta and the official social media accounts of the State Civil Protection and Firefighters Unit.

For visitors, the practical next step is to check those official updates before traveling, heading to the coast, or crossing any area affected by rain.